Thursday, June 14, 2018

The Longer Game

Caveat: It's still early stages, and far too soon to see how this will play out.

Kim, despite his reported unpredictability, is actually fairly predictable. Just because somebody behaves in a way that you think he should not, doesn't make him unpredictable. It just tends to make you look stupid when he acts according to form.

Papa Trump is not unpredictable, either. One thing we know about Trump is that his words eventually will result in something. A tower. A Casino. A deal. It's the mold he was cut from and he knows no other way.
Unlike the typical American President, he is a man of action. Not words.
He will do, or say, what needs to be done or said, to get his end result.
He builds towers.
Tangible things.
He's not selling 'pie in the sky' dreams, and he never has.


Trump apparently made it very clear to his 'good friend' Xi (of China) that a nuked up Nork was not acceptable, and wouldn't be acceptable to Xi as well. (I suspect Papa read my blog.)

Kim wants to be somebody big.
Huge.
Worthy of the adulation he inherited.
This week, he accomplished something neither his Father nor Grandfather never could have dreamed of: to share the stage as an equal to the President of The United States. 
One of only Two.
(Remember...  when his father insisted, and failed, to be included as one of seven? or was it five? does the difference matter at this point?)
Jon-Un did even better than that...
One to One.
Followed up with possible invitations to The White House, and maybe even Mar-a-Lago!
(Personally, I find the image of Kim playing golf in the Florida humidity while wearing his long-sleeved grey Mao suit rather humorous. I soooo want to see that.)

If this process continues, Kim will be de-nuked; and his bitter and brutal regime will continue without fear of United States aggression...
for a while...
His regime will have to open up, because it will no longer be able to use United States aggression as an excuse to exist in it's current form.
Remember: Papa Trump has offered to help build NK into a prosperous nation; the equal of it's southern neighbor.
This will not happen without some 'opening up'.
As his nation begins opens up, the lie will be exposed, and the people will revolt.

<<
Hello! Nicolae Ceausescu.
Elena, too.
(or should I say 'Goodbye?')

Remember (I do) just a few days prior, he was celebrated in their parliament with the cry of "Rumania! Communism! Ceausescu!"
He was so in charge...


Forget the high praise and the kind words that Trump is offering Kim right now, and most likely will continue to offer for the distant future.

If you want to know how Papa really feels toward the Kim regime, go ahead and You Tube his State of the Union speech...
...and remember how often Papa has said that Otto Wormbier's death has not in vain.  Say what you want about his ego. Papa's heart is just as big. (He stay's in touch with Otto's family.)

The path Trump has laid out for Kim will lead directly to his fall.
I do believe that Trump knows this.
May that fall be brutal as fuck.

Viva Trump!

5 comments:

Bike Bubba said...

Amen. He's one guy that I'd be pretty much willing to suspend the 8th Amendment for.

Foxfier said...

It's amazing how Kim is so "unpredictable" that weeks before he did the "oh, well, maybe we won't come" thing, people who pay freaking attention were saying that he was going to back out of the "deal."

What we forgot was that Trump might actually listen to all those high paid experts in "stuff that the Norks do" and plan for it; responding "fine, then it's canceled" was a perfect response, even as he kept the guys setting up the venue on site.

Now to see if this will let the Norks recover without flooding the ROKers or China with waves of skeletal refugees.

Gino said...

Bubba: fear not the Norks have no 8th amendment.

Foxfier: i expect china to reinforce its border at the first sign of trouble. since Nork places it poor in the northern third of the country,(and its privilaged classes in the south) i dont think ROK has too much to worry about... at least not on the level that china does.

John said...

Gino,
I think you've made a reasonable analysis, certainly more then what the talking-head experts are capable of doing. Scott Adams predicted at least one "walk away" before they actually sat down.

The issue of nuked or de-nuked is a tougher question. As we saw with Iraq, it is next to impossible to know with certainty what a country is really doing if the government really wants to hide it.

It's my opinion the only thing that will really lead to a stable North Korea is reaching cooperative trade and exchange agreements between the North and the South. Agreements that improves the lives of the average citizen without putting the current regime at risk. With the realization that improving the lives of the average citizen will cause the average citizen to question the harshness and paranoia of the historical regimes and may feed Kim's fear of losing his power and prestige.

I don't know how anyone other than a Korean can balance those problems. Certainly, we short-sighted Americans can't.

Gino said...

I don't know how anyone other than a Korean can balance those problems.

i grew up around various asian groups. the Koreans certainly do have a unique view of the world and can be quite racist about it. I imagine its even more refined when in their own country.

i will credit them with this: time heals. the attitudes they held in the 70's and 80s have softened incredibly since then.