Things like icemelt accelerate with geometrically; if we are in fact in a long-term warmer pattern, I can easily believe they are correct. Myself, I'm surprised it isn't sooner. I'm looking forward (in a kind of sick way) to finding out whether the mythic Nesting Grounds of the emperor penguins are actually directly over ancient lakebeds or something, that used to justify the now-horrible Walk of the Penguins.
One thing about all that flooding, though ... when the ice melts, the same mass of water will exist, so it's not like it will add to the level of the water (ie, I'm pretty sure the mass of the ice is displacing about as much water as the melted ice will displace) ... not sure on that. Perhaps I'll run a little experiment tonight: 'let you know tomorrow, what say? I've been curious for a while on this "FLOODING!!" panic talking-point.
Not really my area, but I'm pretty sure that the Arctic ice cap melting will not displace ocean levels at all, because the ice is already in the ocean (Archimedes principle and all that.)
Much more troubling are the possibilities that would come from the temperature change (which could drastically affect currents), the salinity change (ditto), and the overall climate effect of having a lot more liquid water available for the water cycle in the atmosphere. In other words, the oceans might not rise, but it might rain more, globally.
Also, a significant increase in water vapor in the atmosphere would contribute to the greenhouse effect--actually water vapor has a bigger impact on this than CO2 does.
BUT (and this is a big but)--all of that is pure speculation. This is an incredibly complex system, and it is impossible to predict what could happen with any certainty. Any of the things I've mentioned could happen, or none of them. And anyone that tells you otherwise is overselling their science.
Brian--yes all. It will be interesting to see how everything goes down.
I couldn't remember whether the ice thing was right or not, so I tested, and yes, floating ice, when it melts, does not change the overall level of the water it is floating in (Eureka!). The ice on land (both in the Arctic and the Antarctic) is of course another story.
More rain: we have a lot of under-land water tables that could do with some replenishing since we've stupidly drained them dry on every inhabited continent; perhaps a lot of the 'spare' water will simply be absorbed.
Be interesting to see what happens to the (reputedly high-quality soil) Sahara if it gets a bunch more rain ...
K-Rod, while you are correct, there are definitely historically confirmed periods of hot or cold that I'm glad I haven't as yet had to live through ... and if the extremes are reasonably avoidable (which they may not be,of course), I'd kinda like to know how I can make a difference. And I'm willing to try things that are logically reasonable, even if they aren't yet proven.
7 comments:
Interesting.
Things like icemelt accelerate with geometrically; if we are in fact in a long-term warmer pattern, I can easily believe they are correct. Myself, I'm surprised it isn't sooner. I'm looking forward (in a kind of sick way) to finding out whether the mythic Nesting Grounds of the emperor penguins are actually directly over ancient lakebeds or something, that used to justify the now-horrible Walk of the Penguins.
One thing about all that flooding, though ... when the ice melts, the same mass of water will exist, so it's not like it will add to the level of the water (ie, I'm pretty sure the mass of the ice is displacing about as much water as the melted ice will displace) ... not sure on that. Perhaps I'll run a little experiment tonight: 'let you know tomorrow, what say? I've been curious for a while on this "FLOODING!!" panic talking-point.
Not buying it either. At this point they don't have a lot of credibility. Let's check back in ten years to assess their prediction.
Not really my area, but I'm pretty sure that the Arctic ice cap melting will not displace ocean levels at all, because the ice is already in the ocean (Archimedes principle and all that.)
Much more troubling are the possibilities that would come from the temperature change (which could drastically affect currents), the salinity change (ditto), and the overall climate effect of having a lot more liquid water available for the water cycle in the atmosphere. In other words, the oceans might not rise, but it might rain more, globally.
Also, a significant increase in water vapor in the atmosphere would contribute to the greenhouse effect--actually water vapor has a bigger impact on this than CO2 does.
BUT (and this is a big but)--all of that is pure speculation. This is an incredibly complex system, and it is impossible to predict what could happen with any certainty. Any of the things I've mentioned could happen, or none of them. And anyone that tells you otherwise is overselling their science.
BTW, if the Antarctic ice cap melted, it might actually raise ocean levels, because it's on land. But I have no idea by how much.
The planet is constantly warming and cooling. If you really think you can change that fact, then sit on your thumb and spin. That should help.
Brian--yes all. It will be interesting to see how everything goes down.
I couldn't remember whether the ice thing was right or not, so I tested, and yes, floating ice, when it melts, does not change the overall level of the water it is floating in (Eureka!). The ice on land (both in the Arctic and the Antarctic) is of course another story.
More rain: we have a lot of under-land water tables that could do with some replenishing since we've stupidly drained them dry on every inhabited continent; perhaps a lot of the 'spare' water will simply be absorbed.
Be interesting to see what happens to the (reputedly high-quality soil) Sahara if it gets a bunch more rain ...
K-Rod, while you are correct, there are definitely historically confirmed periods of hot or cold that I'm glad I haven't as yet had to live through ... and if the extremes are reasonably avoidable (which they may not be,of course), I'd kinda like to know how I can make a difference. And I'm willing to try things that are logically reasonable, even if they aren't yet proven.
kr, you had me at correct. ;^)
BTW, you can make a difference by realizing you have no effect on the weather but that the weather does affect you.
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